Within the first few minutes of the guest speaker’s presentation on April 8, it was obvious why history teacher Sam Hoar ’07 had wanted to bring one of his college mentors to address the Middlesex community. Informed and analytical, engaging and humorous, Dr. Matt Dickinson – a professor of political science at Middlebury College – talked about a topic on many people’s minds in the current presidential election process: “Why the Donald is Winning.”
Last summer, Dr. Dickinson admitted, he had estimated that Donald Trump’s candidacy would last about three weeks – a common opinion among political scientists. “Why, then, is Trump doing so well, contrary to expectations?” Dr. Dickinson asked. “He’s doing far better than I had predicted.”
Who are Trump’s supporters? Having looked at surveys and data attempting to describe them, Dr. Dickinson has found that they cannot be easily characterized. “We have to get beyond the idea that they are a slice of the undereducated,” he said. In an effort to do so, he has been attending an impressive number of the candidates’ rallies – catching all 17 Republican events and four Democratic ones – while on leave from Middlebury to complete his current book.
“You haven’t lived until you’ve gone to a Trump rally,” Dr. Dickinson claimed. At these unusually large gatherings, he detailed, some people are bona fide supporters, while some “want to see the circus.” Following a similar format each time, Trump declares that his poll numbers are up and then moves on to the subject of building a wall along the Mexican border.
Ultimately, Dr. Dickinson found, Trump is successfully tapping into the idea that a portion of the public feels left out of the American dream. The issues of immigration (particularly in terms of national security) and stagnant wages have touched a nerve with many who feel the economy is not going well for them, which may explain why his fans are not simply a narrow segment of the American population.
Moreover, Trump has been masterful at grabbing free media attention. “He’s a ratings’ booster, and network TV loves to cover him,” Dr. Dickinson said. “If he starts losing the attention, he says something outrageous to get attention again. He’s a master at that.” He has similarly mastered social media – especially Twitter, where many follow him for the entertainment value.
Thus, with the correct blend of issues, maximum media exposure, and the appearance of a political “outsider,” Trump has gained momentum, Dr. Dickinson summarized, particularly since the Republican Party has failed thus far to coalesce around an alternate candidate.
Questions abounded after Dr. Dickinson’s talk, as students asked about the viability of other Republican candidates, the potential for a contested convention, and the possible outcome if Trump secures the nomination. “How the party is doing – is it being blamed for the state of the country – has more influence on an election than the candidates themselves,” Dr. Dickinson pointed out. But given his prediction last summer that Trump’s campaign would be short-lived, he concluded, “One problem with political scientists is that we base our predictions on what has happened in the past. When that doesn’t work, we are really at sea.”